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     The biggest mystery in the Social Security world is what is happening with the rate at which claims for Social Security disability benefits are being filed. There was a big run-up between about 2008 and  2010 followed by a prolonged decline. Various theories have been propounded but no one has a good handle on this. No, declines in unemployment cannot be the only explanation. If that were the case, the decline would have ended some time ago.      Jeffrey Schuh and Richard Leavitt gave a presentation to the Technical Panel on Assumptions and Methods of the Social Security Advisory Board on Disability Insurance: The Private Sector . It included the table shown below. LTD means Long Term Disability, that is private insurance, mostly an employee benefit. It's not stated in the presentation but I think EP stands for Elimination Period, that is the length of time after disability begins before LTD payments begin. EP-90 is a 90 day elimination perio...

     The Wall Street Journal article on the plan to alter Social Security�s grid regulations used in determining disability is now available outside the paywall. Here are some excerpts: ... �Evidence shows that in the modern economy the vocational impacts of age, education and work experience are markedly different from what they were when we published the current vocational regulations,� according to the text dated Oct. 18. ...   The proposed rule ... would no longer assume age seriously affects a person�s ability to adapt to simple, entry-level work. It would raise the age at which education and work experience are considered in determining eligibility to 55, from 50. The new rule would also update data on occupational skills that the agency uses to determine eligibility, based on new information from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. ...   A person familiar with the proposal said it has been a top priority for some Social Security Administration officials, who...

     Social Security has posted numbers on the disability claim allowance rates in each state at the initial and reconsideration levels of review. Note the disparities. Click on each page to view full size.

     Social Security has released updated statistics showing that the number of disability claims filed in calendar year 2019 was essentially the same as in 2018. This is a big change. In every year between 2011 and 2018 the number of new claims declined significantly, totaling a 32% decline over these years. Could this be an inflection point? It may be years until we know for sure.       You have to be careful in reading Social Security's table. First, two numbers are presented on number of claims filed, Field Office Receipts and Initial DDS Receipts. Field Office Receipts include many claims that were quickly denied on technical grounds such as the claimant failing to meet the earnings requirement. Changes in agency practices as well as the spread of internet filing of claims affect the number of technical denials. I think the Field Office Receipts numbers should be ignored. The Initial DDS Receipts numbers are the important ones. These ar...

     I've finally gotten around to the sort of list you've seen a lot of in the last couple of weeks -- the most important things that have happened in the Social Security world in the last decade. Below is my list but feel free to post your own list. I came up with eight and didn't want to pad it to make it ten. Constant administrative under-funding of the Social Security Administration accompanied by frequent shutdown threats and occasional actual shutdowns. Agency performance suffered as a result. Service has deteriorated to levels that would have once been thought unimaginable; After the number of Social Security disability claims soared in the 2000-2009 decade, the number of claims started declining in 2010. That decline is continuing. We think we know why claims soared from 2000-2009 -- primarily the aging of the baby boomer population -- but no one has a good handle on why the number of disability claims filed has gone down so much since then or why the declin...

     From the Meridian Star : Amanda Evans sought Social Security Disability Income 20 years after being diagnosed with multiple sclerosis when her advancing condition made it more and more difficult for her to move around her Pearl home. But it wouldn�t be until 2016, two years after applying, before an administrative law judge determined she was eligible for benefits.  She had to go before a Social Security administrative law judge (the third level of appeal after initial claim and reconsideration). She had been denied on three separate initial applications and finally exercised her right of appeal on the third application. By then, she had to use a rolling walker to get into the courtroom.  Evans said the judge looked at her and said, �I am so sorry that this has happened and no one has paid attention.�  Her experience is not an uncommon one in Mississippi, which has the lowest rate of allowances for initial claims and reconsideration...

     From The Role of Information in Disability Insurance Application: An Analysis of the Social Security Statement Phase-In by Philip Armour published in the American Economic Journal in August 2018: This paper exploits a natural experiment in information provision on US Disability Insurance ( DI ) applications: the Social Security state ment. Although the effect of the statement on DI application was neg ligible in the general health and retirement study population , among those previously reporting a work limitation , biennial DI application rates approximately doubled. This effect was driven by previously uninformed individuals. Additional analyses show these were new applicants and were no less likely to be accepted onto DI , accounting for a substantial fraction of the rise in DI rolls from 1994 to 2004 and indicating the importance of informational frictions in disability policymaking.      I know this study i...